m74Official completed · Pens
Germany71%1
ParaguayWin29%1
1-1 (3-4 pens)
World Cup 2026 knockout workspace
World Cup Knockout Simulator
Track the official knockout bracket, then project the remaining path with either the current official state or a baseline that ignores official results.
Official completed
Final results are locked.
Pending official
Fixture has no official score.
Simulation projection
Model-generated outcome.
Ready / awaiting teams
Not yet simulated.
Simulation sandbox
Current official state simulation
Uses official completed results, carries their winners forward, and simulates only unresolved fixtures.
Ratings: World Football Elo RatingsSnapshot label: 2026-06-18Current official state simulation
Baseline simulation / ignores official results
Mode: Current official state simulation / Last seed: Not simulated
Knockout bracket
Road to the trophy
WinnerScroll horizontally to inspect every round
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Final
Tournament Champion
Spain
Default projection
Semifinals
Quarterfinals
Round of 16
Round of 32
Ready Matchup Odds
Probabilities for fixtures with both teams currently known.
| Match | Team A | Team A Win probability | Team B | Team B Win probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| m104 | Spain | 50.1% | Argentina | 49.9% |
Official tournament bracket/data
Official bracket and result status
The Round of 32 field is fixed. Every official knockout fixture is tracked here, including matches outside the simulator's champion path.
30
Completed
2
Pending
32
Tracked
Qualification notes and fair-play handling
Ecuador and Ghana both qualified at shared third-place rank 3; strict order is unresolved and does not affect the tournament output.
No fair-play values are shown for Ecuador or Ghana because official per-team values were unavailable; none were fabricated.
BDEFIJKL third-place group key
Finalized Round of 32
Official pairings with post-group-stage model ratings.
| Match | Slot | Team | Rating | Slot | Team | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| m73 | 2A | South Africa | 1545 | 2B | Canada | 1768 |
| m74 | 1E | Germany | 1933 | 3D | Paraguay | 1784 |
| m75 | 1F | Netherlands | 1950 | 2C | Morocco | 1855 |
| m76 | 1C | Brazil | 1981 | 2F | Japan | 1909 |
| m77 | 1I | France | 2095 | 3F | Sweden | 1760 |
| m78 | 2E | Côte d'Ivoire | 1755 | 2I | Norway | 1933 |
| m79 | 1A | Mexico | 1895 | 3E | Ecuador | 1880 |
| m80 | 1L | England | 2053 | 3K | Congo DR | 1689 |
| m81 | 1D | USA | 1792 | 3B | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1603 |
| m82 | 1G | Belgium | 1874 | 3I | Senegal | 1832 |
| m83 | 2K | Portugal | 1965 | 2L | Croatia | 1883 |
| m84 | 1H | Spain | 2125 | 2J | Austria | 1856 |
| m85 | 1B | Switzerland | 1887 | 3J | Algeria | 1766 |
| m86 | 1J | Argentina | 2135 | 2H | Cabo Verde | 1621 |
| m87 | 1K | Colombia | 2003 | 3L | Ghana | 1576 |
| m88 | 2D | Australia | 1836 | 2G | Egypt | 1723 |
Official-only fixture
Third-place match · m103
Tracked from official results and intentionally outside the 31-match simulation bracket.
Team A
France
54%
Team B
England
46%
Pre-match Elo win probability · closed-form, not simulated
- Official score
- No official score
- Official winner
- Not official
Official knockout result status
All official knockout fixtures; champion-path matches also feed the simulation sandbox above.
Official completedPending official
| Match | Round | Team A | Team B | Official status | Official score | Official winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| m73 | Round Of 32 | South Africa | Canada | Official completed | 0-1 | Canada |
| m74 | Round Of 32 | Germany | Paraguay | Official completed | 1-1 (3-4 pens) | Paraguay |
| m75 | Round Of 32 | Netherlands | Morocco | Official completed | 1-1 (2-3 pens) | Morocco |
| m76 | Round Of 32 | Brazil | Japan | Official completed | 2-1 | Brazil |
| m77 | Round Of 32 | France | Sweden | Official completed | 3-0 | France |
| m78 | Round Of 32 | Côte d'Ivoire | Norway | Official completed | 1-2 | Norway |
| m79 | Round Of 32 | Mexico | Ecuador | Official completed | 2-0 | Mexico |
| m80 | Round Of 32 | England | Congo DR | Official completed | 2-1 | England |
| m81 | Round Of 32 | USA | Bosnia and Herzegovina | Official completed | 2-0 | USA |
| m82 | Round Of 32 | Belgium | Senegal | Official completed | 3-2 AET | Belgium |
| m83 | Round Of 32 | Portugal | Croatia | Official completed | 2-1 | Portugal |
| m84 | Round Of 32 | Spain | Austria | Official completed | 3-0 | Spain |
| m85 | Round Of 32 | Switzerland | Algeria | Official completed | 2-0 | Switzerland |
| m86 | Round Of 32 | Argentina | Cabo Verde | Official completed | 3-2 AET | Argentina |
| m87 | Round Of 32 | Colombia | Ghana | Official completed | 1-0 | Colombia |
| m88 | Round Of 32 | Australia | Egypt | Official completed | 1-1 (2-4 pens) | Egypt |
| m89 | Round Of 16 | Paraguay | France | Official completed | 0-1 | France |
| m90 | Round Of 16 | Canada | Morocco | Official completed | 0-3 | Morocco |
| m91 | Round Of 16 | Brazil | Norway | Official completed | 1-2 | Norway |
| m92 | Round Of 16 | Mexico | England | Official completed | 2-3 | England |
| m93 | Round Of 16 | Portugal | Spain | Official completed | 0-1 | Spain |
| m94 | Round Of 16 | USA | Belgium | Official completed | 1-4 | Belgium |
| m95 | Round Of 16 | Argentina | Egypt | Official completed | 3-2 | Argentina |
| m96 | Round Of 16 | Switzerland | Colombia | Official completed | 0-0 (4-3 pens) | Switzerland |
| m97 | Quarterfinal | France | Morocco | Official completed | 2-0 | France |
| m98 | Quarterfinal | Spain | Belgium | Official completed | 2-1 | Spain |
| m99 | Quarterfinal | Norway | England | Official completed | 1-2 AET | England |
| m100 | Quarterfinal | Argentina | Switzerland | Official completed | 3-1 AET | Argentina |
| m101 | Semifinal | France | Spain | Official completed | 0-2 | Spain |
| m102 | Semifinal | England | Argentina | Official completed | 1-2 | Argentina |
| m103 | Third Place | France | England | Pending official | No official score | Not official |
| m104 | Final | Spain | Argentina | Pending official | No official score | Not official |